2020 CALIFORNIA ALMOND FORECAST UP 18 PERCENT
California’s 2020 almond production is forecast at 3.00 billion meat pounds, unchanged from May’s subjective forecast and 18 percent higher than last year’s crop. The forecast is based on 1.26 million bearing acres. Production for the Nonpareil variety is forecast at 1.30
billion meat pounds, up 24 percent over last year’s deliveries. The Nonpareil variety represents 43 percent of California’s total almond production.
February was very dry throughout most of California, which provided excellent bloom conditions and plenty of opportunity for pollination. There was little concern for frost damage this year. Isolated storms in late March and early April brought inches of rain and even hail to some areas. There were reports of wind gusts toppling trees that were heavy with nuts as well as limbs breaking from the weight. High temperatures in late May and through June helped develop the crop through its final stages. Irrigation was needed and water availability was not an issue. Coupled with a large increase in bearing acreage, the 2020 crop is estimated to be the largest on record.
The average nut set per tree is 5,645, which is an increase of 21 percent compared to 2019. The Nonpareil average nut set of 5,621 is 27 percent higher than last year’s set of 4,429. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.51 grams, down 2 percent from the 2019
average weight. The Nonpareil average kernel weight was 1.60, down 2 percent from last year. A total of 98.5 percent of all nuts sized were sound.
SAMPLING PROCEDURES
To determine tree set, nuts are counted along a path within a randomly selected tree. Work begins at the trunk and progresses to the end of the terminal branch. Using a random number table, one branch is selected
at each forking to continue the path. A branch’s probability of selection is directly proportional to its cross-sectional area. This methodology is used because of its statistical efficiency. The method also makes it possible to end up at any one of the tree’s numerous terminal branches.
Since the selected path has a probability of selection associated with it, this probability is used to expand nut counts arriving at an estimated set for the entire tree.
Along intermediate stages (i.e., the bearing surface between forkings), every fifth nut is picked. All nuts on the terminal branch are picked. These nuts are used to determine size and weight measurements.
FIELD SAMPLING ACTIVITIES
The survey began May 26 and sampling was completed by June 26. There were 1,818 trees sampled for the 2020 survey in 909 orchards. Additional orchards were not sampled for one of the following reasons:
1) Orchard had been sprayed.
2) Orchard had been recently irrigated and was wet.
3) Orchard had been pulled.
4) Grower would not grant permission or could not be contacted.
The Objective Measurement Survey is funded by the Almond Board of California.
DATA RELIABILITY
The 80 percent confidence interval is from 2,720 million meat pounds to 3,280 million meat pounds. This means that the results of our sampling procedures will encompass the true mean 80 percent of the time.